US Fed's hawkish remarks suppress non-ferrous metals, tin prices continue to be in the doldrums [SMM tin futures brief comment]

On July 31, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract fluctuated downward. At the close of trading at 15:00, it settled at 265,290 yuan/mt, down 2,450 yuan (a decline of 0.92%) from the previous trading day. The futures market fluctuated between 264,670 and 267,950 yuan/mt, with the settlement price fixed at 266,160 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 61,840 lots, while open interest decreased by 765 lots to 27,818 lots, indicating that some bullish funds exited the market to hedge risks. The decline in LME tin expanded to 1.68%, closing at $32,850/mt, with an intraday high of $33,450/mt.

​​Hawkish stance from the US Fed​​: At the FOMC meeting on July 30, the Fed paused interest rate cuts for the fifth consecutive time, with two governors voting against, highlighting policy disagreements. Powell emphasized that "more data is needed to support considering an interest rate cut in September," and this hawkish statement caused market expectations for an interest rate cut to drop sharply below 40%. Strong US GDP and employment data pushed the US dollar index to a two-month high, directly suppressing dollar-denominated commodities.

​​Risk of escalating trade friction​​: The US President announced a 50% tariff increase on Brazil, sparking market concerns about a deterioration in the global trade environment. Although the Chilean Finance Minister stated that "copper tariffs are expected to be exempted," minor metals such as tin have not yet received clear policy guarantees.

​​Time lag in domestic policy transmission​​: Although the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed "implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy," actual improvement in industrial metal demand still requires time, and the marginal boost from macroeconomic factors has weakened in the short term.